Measuring Forecast Accuracy

Supply Chain Forecast Accuracy is usually measured with Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE, the average of percentage errors. But there are several other metrics to consider. Here’s an example …

10 things to improve forecast accuracy

Forecasts are never right but you can improve your forecast accuracy … You can’t improve what you don’t measure Aggregate – individual plus or minus swings cancel each other out Measure forecast accuracy at the right time fences Review forecasts by exception only.  If the forecast deviation is within expected limits leave well enough alone… [Read More]

Not so ‘Good to Great’

An executive asked my opinion about having his staff all read Good to Great by Jim Collins (2001). It’s been years since I first read the book, one of many business books collecting dust in my library.  When I went back to the list of companies used for research I saw some I knew hadn’t… [Read More]

Kanban and Sustainability

Dear Larry, Andrew and Guanair; How are you doing ? I would like to share with you that We Won the Whirlpool award Sustainability-2013 , among 536 suppliers and 55 projects, With our project about plastic returnable box saving industrial waste (avoid 75000 cardboard boxes /2500 wood pallets /50 km of plastic wrap /40 ton… [Read More]

Business Model Canvas

Remember how you felt when you first started drawing your first Value Stream Maps? Well that’s how I felt when I first got my hands on Business Model Generation by Alexander Osterwalder, and Yves Pigneur. This is a new visual tool you can use to help connect your value propositions to your customers and suppliers. The… [Read More]

LeanSigma Tool Kit

Lean Sigma Behavior Other Customer & Process Focus Muda, Muri, Mura Value Stream Map Flow, Takt, Pull Visual Management Process Analysis Problem Solving Quick Changeover Standard Operations One Piece Flow Kanban Heijunka Respect for People Total Productive Maintenance Voice of the Customer Critical to X Project Management, DMAIC Statistics Data Collection Rolled Throughput Yield Cause… [Read More]

LeanSigma Green Belt Training

Flow Consulting clients have often requested us to put together a Green Belt LeanSigma class, and we now have enough demand to guarantee the minimum number of students.  So we are partnering with one of our key clients, Gulf States Toyota, to run the class this fall. Course Objectives: Provide a fundamental understanding of LeanSigma… [Read More]

Demand Segmentation – one size fits none

We know better than to try to force fit strategies yet time and again we find businesses planning and managing their processes with a ‘one size fits all’ approach.  Hospital services, insurance underwriting, pharmaceutical production, consumer electronics assembly, integrated supply chain services all struggle with finding the right balance of specialization and common process.  At… [Read More]

Supply Chain Kaizen

Euclides Coimbra latest book recently made it to the top of my reading list. Kaizen in Logistics & Supply Chains is a well considered application of lean and blitz to the fields of logistics and supply chain management.  Here you will find detailed advice on flow, takt, cell design, kanban, internal and external logistics, standard… [Read More]

Lean Forecasting

Why can’t Sales give us a decent forecast?  Paraphrasing George E.P. Box, “All forecasts are wrong, some are useful.”  If forecasts are wrong, then why forecast?  Supply chain lead time is often much longer than the customer is willing to wait, and so the business carries inventory somewhere, and inventory is a waste.  The Lean… [Read More]