Moonlighting, Moonshining, Skunksworks, Trystorming and 3P November 19, 2007
Posted by Lawrence Loucka in : Definitions, Lean, Lean Sigma , 1 comment so far
Moonlighting - work a second job, usually after hours; "The med student is moonlighting as a taxi driver". To work at another job, often at night, in addition to one’s full-time job. Also to sell unused vacation time to do some consulting - how I got in to this line of work.
Moonshining - Illicit distilling. Often at night with home made apparatus. When several Japanese consultants from Shingijitsu were working with Boeing on kaizen they observed a team member bringing some homemade fixtures in to solve a problem. Described as "doing a little moonlighting" this term was misunderstood or mistranslated as moonshining, now the common term used to describe a key stage of 3P - Production Preparation Process.
Skunk Works - A skunkworks is a group of people who, in order to achieve unusual results, work on a project in a way that is outside the usual rules. A skunkworks is often a small team that assumes or is given responsibility for developing something in a short time with minimal management constraints. Typically, a skunkworks has a small number of members in order to reduce communications overhead. A skunkworks is sometimes used to spearhead a product design that thereafter will be developed according to the usual process. A skunkworks project may be secret. The name is taken from the moonshine factory in Al Capp’s cartoon, "Lil’ Abner."
The following are from Kelly Johnson of Lockheed’s Skunk Works:
- The Skunk Works manager must be delegated practically complete control of his program in all aspects. They should report to a division president or higher.
- Strong but small project offices must be provided both by the military and industry.
- The number of people having any connection with the project must be restricted in an almost vicious manner. Use a small number of good people (10% to 25% compared to the so-called normal systems).
- A very simple drawing and drawing release system with great flexibility for making changes must be provided.
- There must be a minimum number of reports required, but important work must be recorded thoroughly.
- There must be a monthly cost review covering not only what has been spent and committed but also projected costs to the conclusion of the program. Don’t have the books ninety days late and don’t surprise the customer with sudden overruns.
- The contractor must be delegated and must assume more than normal responsibility to get good vendor bids for subcontracts on the project. Commercial bid procedures are very often better than military ones.
- The inspection system as currently used by ADP, which has been approved by both the Air Force and Navy, meets the intent of existing military requirements and should be used on new projects. Push more basic inspection responsibility back to subcontractors and vendors. Don’t duplicate so much inspection.
- The contractor must be delegated the authority to test their final product in flight. They can and must test it in the initial stages. If they don’t, they rapidly lose their competency to design other vehicles.
- The specifications applying to the hardware and software must be agreed to in advance of contracting. A specification section stating clearly which important military specification items will not knowingly be complied with and reasons is highly recommended.
- Funding a program must be timely so that the contractor doesn’t have to keep running to the bank to support government projects.
- There must be mutual trust between the military project organization and the contractor with very close cooperation and liaison on a day-to-day basis. This cuts down misunderstanding and correspondence to an absolute minimum.
- Access by outsiders to the project and its personnel must be strictly controlled by appropriate security measures.
- Because only a few people will be used in engineering and most other areas, ways must be provided to reward good performance by pay not based on the number of personnel supervised.
"When the prototype approach for system development is used, ultimate production of the system must be considered throughout the design and evaluation phase."
See Wikipedia for more on Lockheed Skunk Works.
Trystorming - extends brainstorming by quickly creating mock-ups that can be rapidly and thoroughly evaluated. Trystorming refers to taking an idea and trying it out in practice. If the idea concerns the design of a product, you mock-up the product. If the idea is about a process improvement, you pilot the improvement. Sometimes we start with sketches, then table top ‘paper dolls’, then move on to life size mock ups with cardboard, 2 by 4’s, or whatever comes to hand. Finally build a functional model, although maybe not ‘industrial strength’ we prove out the concepts before building or buying the final machines, products, or processes.
Demand Segmentation November 8, 2007
Posted by Lawrence Loucka in : Definitions, Lean, Lean Sigma, Logistics, Supply Chain , 1 comment so far
Traditional Product Quantity (PQ) or ABC analysis fails to recognize that high volume may not be predictable and that low volume can be. So when trying to determine which products may lend themselves readily to pull techniques we can run into trouble if we don’t understand demand variation. Get some demand data - build a spreadsheet or table listing products in rows and demand in columns, calculate average demand, Cv (the standard deviation divided by demand average), and plot it as here. Here are some considerations:
- Altitude - this analysis typically starts with customer demand but can be done by market, customer, finished goods, in-process, raw materials, suppliers i.e. anywhere along the supply chain where there is consumption.
- Time Bucket - depending on the ‘clock speed’ of the enterprise the demand data can be aggregated by month, week, day, or hour. When gathering data start with the smallest time period possible. It’s easy to convert daily demand to week or month but impossible to take monthly and say anything about daily demand.
- Unit of Measure - the units of volume may be straight forward, for example ‘pieces’ or may be complicated due to different value streams or product lines having a mix of units. You may need to convert your data to a common unit. Dollars can be a common unit.
- Demand - sometimes not easy to get. Shipments may not represent true customer demand, especially if on-time delivery and order fill aren’t very high. Getting original customer demand can be difficult if the customer order entry system forces ship complete or when back orders lose original request dates (and quantities).
- Geography - like altitude, this analysis can be done by production cell, value stream, plant or DC, business unit, or enterprise.
- Horizon - use forecast to determine volume, especially if product life cycles are short. Using history to predict future volume is like driving by looking in the rear view mirror - it can be done, but reaction time is a little slow, and its hard to see the ‘cliff event’ until it’s too late. Sometime forecast is crap or isn’t available, so then use very recent history.
- Timeline - usually want at least 25 data points to calculate a meaningful standard deviation of the demand history.
- Scrub - other than filtering out abnormal orders consider weekend transactions, huge one-time orders, and zeros. Excel and Access treat blanks and zeros differently. As you take the transaction log and build a pivot table of part number vs. date you’ll have cells with no data because no transactions occur on that day for that item. Use search/replace to replace blank with zero. But for new products coming to life during the study period you might leave cells blank prior to the launch date. Similarly if a product has regular demand, say Monday, Wednesday, Friday you might want to leave Tuesday and Thursday blank.
- Plot - volume vs. Cv
- Interpret - Cv’s less than 1.0 lend themselves to flow and pull techniques. Cv’s less than 0.5 can often be handled with rate-based replenishment methods. Remember a Cv of 1.0 means the demand variation is a great as the demand average. Say a part has an average daily demand of 100 with a Cv of 1.0 the demand one day could be zero and the next 200 or more - not very predictable. High Cv items are usually low volume, but not always. Take a look at the three data points in the top center of the graph above. Must be a story here - why are the highest volume parts so unpredictable?
Muda in the Warehouse September 25, 2007
Posted by Lawrence Loucka in : Consulting, Definitions, Lean, Lean Sigma, Logistics, Supply Chain , add a comment
Although created in the manufacturing environment of Toyota by Taiichi Ohno, the Seven Wastes can be found almost everywhere, if you learn how to see them. Here’s some lean thinking for the warehouse:
Overproduction - Think about the consequences when consumers, retailers, wholesalers, distributors, and manufacturers justify "just in case" or Murphy stock as a hedge against unplanned demand. Money, time, people, physical assets, the environment have all been tied up for something that isn’t needed.
Waiting - the ‘hurry up and wait’ of trucks sitting idle or drivers killing time awaiting their turn at the dock, or DC workers or lifts standing by waiting for tools, instructions, materials to arrive or to be taken away. Waiting comes from poor layout, lumpy demand, system batching. Then once the blockage is cleared we hustle.
Defective Product or Service - from picking errors, incorrect order quantities, misplaced stock to shipping on the wrong carrier or the wrong mode these errors consume resources of time, people and materials to no useful end. Worse yet, additional resources, often 2 or 3 times the original, are usually needed to correct the error.
Overprocessing - how about dock audits, redundant approvals, pick/pack/ship audits, cycle counting? Another example of overprocessing the the warehouse is the failure to rationalize the supply base and concentrate relationship management on a few top-tier suppliers. What about rationalizing the carriers? Both result in inefficient duplication of resources, decisions, and communications.
Moving Product - like overproduction, the unnecessary movement of product can occure both within the warehouse and throughout the entire supply chain. Too many steps, too many stops, unnecessary movement from suppliers though master DC’s to regional DC’s for further deployment to customers can be deadly drivers of cost and time, labor, and space.
Moving People - in the warehouse an enormous percentage of people’s time is devoted to movement, such as picking, put-away, and replenishment. If a facility isn’t well laidout with easy access to "A" items an enormous amount of time can be wasted in traveling empty. When good aren’t where they’re supposed to be the movement to the wrong location is both a defect and a waste of human motion.
Ineffective Inventory Control - creates waste a several levels. Excess inventory based on bad inventory data diverts limited capital into creation and maintenance of waste. Excess inventory results in consuming valuable storage space to hold unnecessary goods. A scarcity of items, on the other hand, results in stock outs, expediting, or lost orders.
PowerPoint and other miscommunications August 5, 2007
Posted by Lawrence Loucka in : Consulting, Lean, Lean Sigma, Sigma , add a comment.gif)
Recently read Edward R. Tufte’s The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint: Pitching Out Corrupts Within and initially dismissed his thesis as troglodyte. Now sensitized, I’ve been watching for evidence of PowerPoint Abuse. Found an unfortunate example with two parallel teams during a strategic capital equipment review. Both teams were given the same mission and access to data: scrutinize the new capital equipment plans, challenge assumptions, collect new data and define cost reduction and risk mitigation plans. Both teams were staffed with bright industrial, process, manufacturing, quality engineers who pulled on other subject matter experts in their data gathering. Leadership effectively facilitated and guided both teams through the current state to future state diagnostic journey. Significant productivity, utilization, overall equipment effectiveness opportunities were identified and tested over the two week full-time exercise.
One team plastered their "war room" with all of their data, continuously rearranging their wall, retelling their story. The other team began typing their findings and abandoned their wall after a couple of days. Individual leaders would visit with the teams randomly throughout the study period but never "walked the wall", instead expected PowerPoint slides for the daily out briefs. Attempts were made to reconcile the two teams leading up to a joint presentation to senior management.
Bottom line - what’s the new equipment price tag to support the new 5 year strategic operating plan?
One team argued for showing both the prior and new estimates as side by side stacked bar charts, the other team just a table listing the $9.6 million delta.
Despite coaching challenges the delta display won out. Too bad because the Executive VP had remembered "the number" and misinterpreted the table. Had the first team taken the EVP on a tour of their wall the message would have been clearer.
Bow Wave July 29, 2007
Posted by Lawrence Loucka in : Definitions, Lean, Lean Sigma, Logistics, Supply Chain , add a comment
Keeping due dates straight in an MRP environment is a fundamental prerequisite. Plot a time series for the number of work orders, labor or machine hours, or dollars any you may find a significant amount of past due, due soon, and a short tail out into the future: you’ve got a demand bow wave.
John Scott Russell grew up in Glasgow where he was so fascinated by the great creak and roar of the first Newcomen steam engines at the Carntyne mines, that he abandoned his career in the church to become an engineer. In 1834 Russell accepted an invitation from the Union Canal Company to beat off the challenge from the new steam carriages and railways by designing better, faster canal boats. While testing his boats on the Union Canal near Edinburgh, he decided that it was the great bow wave the boats made that was slowing them down. As he rode along the canal in August 1834, he watched a rapidly drawn boat as it suddenly came to a halt in front of him. And something extraordinary happened: The great hump of water built up in front of the boat kept on moving as a single, huge wave, apparently without losing speed. Russell set off on horseback to follow this wave, and chased it for over a mile along the canal before it started to weaken.
Bow waves sap energy from the boat and reduce fuel economy; as well, large bow waves can damage shore facilities such as docks if a large boat sails past at high speed.
So too for a build up of work in front of an organization.
Reducing the size of the bow wave is a major goal of maritime architecture. Demand Smoothing, Master Scheduling, and Heijunka are supply chain tools for doing the same to manage the build up of work.